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[fn]Crisis Group telephone interviews, Congo analyst and researcher working on M23 demobilisation, March 2022. M23 released several videos about the November attacks, accusing the Congolese army of “provocation”. Hide Footnote In a larger attack on 24 January in Nyesisi, near the Virunga National Park, alleged M23 rebels killed about 40 Congolese soldiers, including a colonel. [fn]Crisis Group correspondence, former M23 rebel, January 2022. Hide Footnote Some analysts believe that Rwanda backed this assault, as it occurred near Uganda’s road works. [fn]Crisis Group interviews, MONUSCO officials, security source and diplomats, Kinshasa, February 2022.
This plan went nowhere, however, allegedly because each of Kampala and Kigali were wary of seeing the other expand a sphere of influence in the DRC. [fn]“Foreign troops enter DRC: Why the Goma meeting failed”, Kivu Security Tracker, 18 November 2019. See also Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°150, Averting Proxy Wars in the Eastern DR Congo and Great Lakes, 23 January 2020. Hide Footnote Unable to ease the deep-rooted mistrust between the two, Tshisekedi changed tack and began to pursue bilateral cooperation.
Crisis Group telephone interviews, Congo analyst and researcher working on M23 demobilisation, March 2022. Hide Footnote Kagame immediately denied that Rwanda was involved. [fn]“Paul Kagame: ‘Les coups d’État sont le fruit de la mauvaise gouvernance’”, Jeune Afrique, 28 January 2022. Hide Footnote How much the M23 can further destabilise the east is unclear, but the group could create headaches for everyone in the Great Lakes region.
Hide Footnote The president of Uganda’s M23 wing denied involvement, but did acknowledge the presence of Makenga and his men on Congolese soil. [fn]Bertrand Bisimwa, “Mise au point du M23”, 8 November 2021. Hide Footnote Rwanda also denied that it was involved, blaming the Uganda cohort for the attack. [fn]“RDF not involved in M23 attack in DRC”, press release, Rwandan Defence Forces, 9 November 2021. Hide Footnote (Uganda’s deputy foreign minister dismissed Rwanda’s accusation as “rubbish”. [fn]“Rwanda’s claims that Uganda support M23 rebels are rubbish – Minister Oryem”, ChimpReports, 10 November 2021. Hide Footnote) Analysts told Crisis Group that Makenga likely overreacted to a security incident.
[fn]In Uganda, the border is known as Katuna. See also “Rwanda has reopened the border with Uganda but distrust could close it again”, The Conversation, 10 March 2022. Hide Footnote Among other things, Kagame accused Kampala of harassing Rwandans in Uganda. Commerce between the two countries all but collapsed as the border shut.
As much as 90 per cent of Congo’s gold is smuggled to neighbouring countries, with the bulk arriving in Rwanda and Uganda. [fn]“De Kampala à Dubaï, les nouvelles routes de l’or africain”, Jeune Afrique, 3 February 2022. An analyst told Crisis Group: “Rwanda and Uganda are making a lot of money from the eastern DRC being a mess”. Crisis Group telephone interview, March 2022. On 17 March, the U. S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned Belgian gold dealer Alain Goetz, the African Gold Refinery in Uganda and a network of companies involved in the illicit movement of gold valued at hundreds of millions of dollars per year from the DRC, stating: “More than 90 per cent of DRC gold is smuggled to regional states, including Uganda and Rwanda, where it is then often refined and exported to international markets, particularly the UAE.
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